BOOOneys Round 18 preview

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BOOOneys Round 18 preview

Post by Booney on Thu Jul 30, 2015 4:30 pm

FNF Footy dished up a ripper last week. The fans of 17 other clubs were happy to watch the Hawks demolish the Blues by a record 138 points, don’t say you didn’t enjoy it. Of course you did. Nothing like watching a traditional chest beater like Carlton getting their pants pulled down. The 1995 Premiership reunion was on Friday night. I hope they all enjoyed seeing what Carlton has become on the back of their salary cap penalties resulting from that flag.


Hawthorn v Richmond

This week dishes up another FNF contest worth looking at but for all different reasons with the 3rd placed rampant Hawks and the 5th placed Tigers shaping up to each other at the G.

The Hawks have simply been in undeniable form. They’ve smacked the Dockers around in Tassie, pumped the Swannies in Sydney and came back home under the roof and gave the Blues, well, the blues. They have been in irresistible form. 82 goals in their last 4 outings....82! They are killing sides with their team defence giving their multi-faceted forward line supply that most forwards can only dream of. Over 220 F50 entries in the last month while conceding just 167 D50 entries. That’s resulted in 67 goals to 17 in the last 3 weeks. They’ve got blokes at both ends of the ground in great form, their mids simply do as they please, they’ve got old stagers like Lewis, Hodge, Mitchell and Burgoyne running the show and promising kids in Hartung, top 10 pick O’Rourke and Litherland ( sounds like a dream holiday location for people with a lisp ) coming in and doing a job. They could welcome back Duryea, Shiels and Stratton this week from the injury list. Bloody hell.

Friday can’t come around quick enough for the Tigers, the sooner they start this weeks match the sooner Jack Reiwoldt can take out Bacher Houli “by accident”. Ol’ Jack looked to have his **** in order over the course of season 2015 but he blew a gasket on Saturday afternoon after the siren on the back of Houli’s monumental brain fade. He hit the deck, literally and looked set to seek out Bacher, only to have big Ivan Maric grab him and stop him from doing something he regretted. Like getting his hair cut like Dustin Martyn. The Tigers were pretty solid against the Dockers last week, errant kicking was the reason they lost, not Houli’s cock up. 10 18 to 12 10 was costly, very costly. It cost them 4th spot. The usual suspects, but as new bloke to watch, on baller Kane Lambert. Looks a likely customer.

So can the Tigers keep in touch with the top four or will the Hawks take another fellow top 8 contender to town? Might not be as one sided as recent weeks and we’ve all seen the Tigers take on and beat Fremantle and Sydney on their own dung heaps, tough ask in this one though, the Hawks are at the top of their game. Hawthorn by 34 points. I do expect a bold showing from the Tigers though.



Geelong v Brisbane

The Catters just keep boxing on and a win over the Giants last week keeps their finals hopes alive and the teams just above them honest. Looking to make it three wins on the trot hosting the bottom placed Lions down at the Cattery. It’s a long way from Brisbane to Geelong and no chartered helicopters will be on offer.

The Cats are still strong through the midfield but it’s their rock solid old heads in defence that keep them in games. Taylor, Lonergan and Enright hold them together and at the other end Motlop is growing in confidence and consistency while Hawkins is hitting some solid form. Caddy and Duncan are becoming reliable and Lang looks like a good ball user. Obviously the talk of who stays and who goes at season’s end is on the lips of everyone in Geelong and some of the champions likely to go at the end of the year will enjoy their last fews runs around Cat Park and would want one more taste of finals action before they take their things out of their lockers. This one will help them stay in the finals race.

There’s not much to say about the Lions that would make any fan of the ol’ Bears or ‘Roys feel good about their footy life at the moment. They can’t get the ball inside 50, they can’t score, they can’t stop bleeding goals and they lose by an average of 46 points a week. That’s 8 goals a week and they haven’t had a win since beating Port back in May. That’s 9 losses on the trot by an average of 8 goals. Ick. I can’t see it turning around for them this week either. There was talk about asking for a priority pick, better off creating an environment that the young players want to stay in and stop wasting money on high priced under performing recruits. One positive for them has been the form of ruckman Stefan Martin. He’s been solid and competing all year for them.

Expect the Cats to win comfortably here, it might even be a flashback to the Cats of old in this one. Catters by 73 points with Hawkins bagging out on sausage rolls.


Collingwood v Melbourne

Well, this might be it. This might be the end of the dream, Collingwood might just get back on the winners list. After being 8-3 they’ve dropped 5 in a row to be 8-8 and barely there in the race for the 8. They get a small reprieve this weekend when they face the battling Demons. While the sides at the pointy end of the ladder are dishing up some inspiring footy the sides at the bottom are dishing up some absolute rotters and Melbourne are right in the thick of them.

Collingwood had a tough run in the last 5 or so weeks that eroded any confidence they had and despite looking to be a chance against the Doggies last week they didn’t offer a lot of resistance and the Dogs might just have won by more than they did if they were on song. The Pies had 100 less touches, 15 less I50’s but somehow managed to win the clearances. It mattered little as their undermanned forward half offered little presence other than rookie Darcy Moore. He looks a real prospect and the father-son connection in AFL footy may just have another exciting chapter in it. 5 goals from 9 touches and 4 marks is good work from a key forward. On the other hand Jesse White managed to get his ample frame out of contest after contest and offered pretty much nothing. No real surprise there.

Melbourne have been rotten for a couple of weeks. 6 goals against the Saints, 8 against Brisbane and 7 against Essendon. That’s ugly. Like, REAL ugly. They can’t score against the other sides in the bottom 6. They haven’t kicked over 10 goals since they beat the Cats during the mid season split rounds. ( Cat fans will like that reminder ). So while they’ve spent up big on Paul Roos and his sidekicks, turned over 30 odd players in 2 years it’s still much of a muchness with the Demons. Jones, Cross, Vince, Viney....and not much else as far as consistent performances at this level. They need to show something in the next month or it’s another long winter in 2016 for Demons fans. Not that long I suppose, they can give up on footy once the first snow fall hits Hotham.

Sadly, Collingwood will win this week. By 32 points. Don’t go out of your way to be home to watch this one.


Sydney v Adelaide

What’s happened to the Swannies? Not only are they getting beaten, they’re getting BEATEN! Sure, they’ve faced West Coast and Hawthorn in the last fortnight but 9 goal and 15 goal losses haven’t been seen in Sydney since John Ironmonger was leading the rucks. Adelaide continued their good form by holding off the Suns by 45 points at home and have to wait another year to face former Crow Kurt Tippett. He’s busy this week, something about a new solarium getting craned into the shack at Bondi.

It’s been a fortnight the Swans would rather forget, pushing for a top two spot one week and all of a sudden clinging onto 4th spot with only Bacher Houli to thank. The last month they’ve kicked 7,7,10 and 14 goals with the big budget forward line struggling to function. It’s after half time that they are getting rolled. In 16 games they’ve won only 7 third quarters and 8 last quarters, that means after half time they are lucky to break even with their opponent. Is this a drop off in intensity from the side we expect it from the most or is it fitness or both?

Adelaide have had a big scoring fortnight, 19 goals against the Suns and 18 against Port means their mids are reaping the rewards of Sam Jacobs work and the forwards are looking like a cohesive unit after having some mixed form in the first half of the year. Walker is getting his hands on it, perhaps moving as free as he has since the cork from Mitchell, Jenkins has 6 goals in two weeks and if it isn’t Eddie Betts it’s Charlie Cameron sneaking out the back or roving the packs and finishing off the work of Dangerfield, Douglas and Thompson.

Interesting match up here, Sydney really out of form and desperate to win and stay in the top 4 while Adelaide could almost secure a finals spot with a win in the harbour city. How do you pick it? Either you forget the Swans last two weeks and back them at home or you see it as more than that. Adelaide are in good nick, Sydney aren’t. I think Adelaide can win this one, but I’m not sure they will.....Adelaide by 9 points.


Carlton v North Melbourne


Well, Blues players and fans will be doing all they can to move on from last week’s shellacking as soon as possible, a record defeat for the proud club would not sit will on those little round cafe tables in Lygon St and this week they host the Kangroos who made sure Boomer enjoyed his 400th in Brisbane with a win over the bottom placed Bears.

Since Carlton had their little “up” following Micks sacking they’ve lost Gibbs to a torn pec for the year, Judd retired with a knee and had mixed results from Lachie Henderson with talk around town he’s set to leave the ailing club. So two prime movers gone, a key forward looking disinterested and a side struggling to score. 4,8,5, and 7 goals in the last month shows that the sides near the bottom of the ladder full of kids who struggle under the pressure of the “team defence” ( there it is again ) that the top sides employ simply struggle to move the ball forward with any purpose. Carlton are just one example of this. They win plenty of the ball, win hit outs, tackle and compete but they can’t get it forward to anyone in a decent position and end up back pedalling on the back of turnovers. They’re without a coach, they need some players into the group and it looks like some, at least one, is about to walk. Still a long way back for the Blues.

The Kangas are sitting 8th, 2 games behind 4th and have a mighty soft run over the next few weeks with Carlton, Melbourne and St Kilda before facing Fremantle. They should win their next 3, build some percentage and be knocking on the door of the top 4 in a month from now. That’s if you trust them. They’ve been capable of dishing up a shocker and dropping the odd game they shouldn’t over the last two years and I’m not yet confident enough with them to say that is completely gone from their game and psyche. Not saying this is the week, not saying it’s next, they might not drop one at all....but I’m yet to be convinced. Why? They still rely heavily on old stagers Petrie,Harvey,Higgins, Dal Santo....they haven’t had much youth step right up and to be a success come finals you need depth and all players playing consistently well.

They’ll waltz in this week though, by 50+ points.


Gold Coast v West Coast


The very East meets very West in a battle of nearly top and nearly bottom with both sides having more in common in 2015 than some would think. Both sides have been decimated with injury, one side has coped with it, flourished even and nobody expected it. The other side hasn’t dealt with it at all and we expected they had more depth than they have been able to demonstrate. Then there’s the “line” they’ve both crossed in recent memory....yes, I went there.

The Suns made their way to Adelaide and their rotten luck continued on with the little Master doing a medial in the first 20 minutes that has seen his annus horriblis come to an end. They tried without him, more than they seemed to during the first half of the year anyway. Bennell came flying back in, got himself a high possession count and he looked picture perfect in some of his contested ball situations. Big Dixon shrugged a couple of Adelaide big men off with ease and looked like a man playing on school kids in a couple of contests while fellow forward unit Lynch took some 11 marks all over the ground. Problem was that other than Bennell the other mids were smashed.

West Coast on the other hand continued on their merry way by flogging the Swannies in Perth. The biggest high/low light of the game was West coast holding Sydney to 35 I50’s ( Carlton had 33 against Hawthorn ) and at one stage they kept the Swans outside of their F50 for over 15 minutes. That’s a remarkable “team defence” effort and it goes a long way to explaining their rise up the ladder in 2015. It’s almost impossible to break through their zone. They’ve got a stacked forward line which gives them a target when coming through the middle and if they don’t mark/crumb/score the mids/half backs have a chance to set the zone up and it’s only a matter of moments before the forwards get another sniff of leather.

While the Suns battled for ¾ against Adelaide it was another 8 goal loss, for West Coast it was just another percentage boosting 9 goal win. West Coast by 44 points.


Port v St Kilda

Both sides head to Adelaide Oval with a win under their belt from last weekend, neither side have had much to really smile about this year with both groups showing inconsistency and indifferent from not only from week to week but from quarter to quarter and it might be another stop start affair when Port host the Sainters over the lamb roast just after noon on Sunday. ( Who else used to have a roast every Sunday as a kid but now just dreams of being able to afford one? )

Port are getting involved in plenty of shootouts, more by accident (read clanger) than by design. 5 games this year with both sides 100+ points, Port in 4 of them. The most frustrating part for Port fans is a year of so close but so far. In 2015 Port have an average losing margin of just 19 points across their 9 losses, only West Coasts 3 at 16 points and Hawthorns 4 by an astounding average of 6 points have fared better. So while Port have squandered plenty of opportunities they have obviously created plenty for themselves and the opposition. Tidy up some inefficient disposal and Port could be back where they were in 2014 without much changing in personel. (15th for disposal efficiency ) Last week saw Chad Wingard continue his stellar form, 7 weeks of 3 or more goals and that makes 26 games in a row where he’s had two fingers from the goal umpire. Quite brilliant stats from a young man who is a quite brilliant finisher in front of the uprights.

Looking at the numbers the Saints are mid table in plenty of key areas, but one stood out. Average winning margin, 34.3 points. Average losing margin, 34.4 points! So they win by 5 goals or lose by 5 goals. ( Yes, yes, averages I know...I’m not interested in means, medians or anything that needs a degree to understand ). Luckily for them they had the Demons dished up to break a three game losing streak and while it was a win it was an unsightly affair with their class rising to the top. Reiwoldt forward, Fisher back, Montagna middle. The old blokes who have memories of September action stood up when the side needed them and set them on the way to a win. Looks like Billy Longer, ex-Bear, is finding some fitness and is starting to show why they chased him. He’s got a lot of work to do, but looks like he’s ready to be the #1 ruckman.

You would think Port at home will be too strong for the Saints, I expect Port to make it back to back wins, by 28 points.


Essendon v Western Bulldogs


The Bombers and the Bullies face off under the roof in Sunday twilight under lights footy, one team has plenty to play for and the other can’t wait for 2015 to come to an end. The Bombers had a crack last week but fell short of Port while the Doggies kept the rest of the footy world happy inflicting loss #5 on the trot for the Pies. Well done, Doggies, well done.

Essington had a crack last week, they’ve had a crack most weeks, at least until ¾ time. In 16 games, they’ve won 3 last quarters. Clearly the lack of preseason has taken its toll on the Bombers as they run out of legs late in games. They get enough of the ball, don’t use it very well, but at least they get it. Was interesting to see “BJ” Goddard have a crack at Paddy Ryder last week, only to be shut down by stand in skipper Heppell. Was great from Heppell, **** from Goddard. He left St Kilda as they slid down the ladder. Hardly in a position to fire shots, fella. Like the look of O’Brien, looks like a good ball user and one to watch, along with Hooker, who we all know of. Hooker, with the right supply, could be a genuine key forward of the competition IMO.

The young Doggies are hanging in there, they had a ruff ruff patch a month or so ago but have got some bite back and look set to play finals...they’ve got Port next, Melbourne, West Coast, North and the Lions. With 10 wins now and at least a couple to come they are looking at some September action. They look to have made some smart moves of late, most of them in the drafts over the last few years with kids galore looking set for long successful careers. Redpath looks a monster in the making ( 194cm 100kgs ) and the tandem big man act of he and Boyd ( 200 / 104 ) they’ve got some serious key forwards. Chuck in Crameri and Stringer as mid/talls, a deep midfield and growing defence, these Doggies are coming. My favourite, Luke Dahlhaus, he’s a tireless worker and is getting some reward off the field with some well earned recognition.

Can’t see the Bombers taking it up to the Dogs for long enough here with the Dogs sniffing finals with another win or two they’ll be hell bent on making it win #11 before the weekend is done. Bulldogs by 33.



Fremantle v GWS


Still grinning after stealing 4 points from Richmond last weekend the Dockers will be happy at home. They’ve lost Fyfe to the cork Mitchell gave him, better that then losing him to suspension or long term injury though. The Giants were crap last week against the Cats, a win would have had them in the 8 and with Essendon, Port, Sydney, Carlton and Melbourne to come they could have had 10 wins with a few winnable ones to come and a maiden finals berth. Not so much.

Sitting on top with just the 2 losses for the year and heading home to host the kids there’d be a good feeling about the purple change rooms this week. A couple of big names made a welcome return to form last week against the Tigers, big Pav bagged 3, Barlow, Mayne, Hill, Fyfe and Pearce all played well. When those blokes play well they’ve got lots of run and carry. Their defensive pressure is back up, 80 tackles in the match and 6 blokes had 5 or more, that’s what we expect from the Dockers. I think that side of their game would have been a focus after the Hawks smashed them and they’ve certainly upped that in the last few weeks. They look to be just building again for the business end of the season.

The Giants would be kicking themselves for last weeks effort, well, in reality if they tried to they’d probably miss. Clangers galore last week, I noted they were one of the most efficient sides in the comp in last weeks preview, they blew that out the water with a shocker against the Cats, but that had as much to do with the Cats tying them down as much as it did their own ineptitude. Treloar, Coniglio and co ( no, it isn’t a law firm ) will match up well with the deep Dockers midfield, the defence will need to be on their game to stop the entries Fremantle will create and they’ll need to be much, much cleaner under the pressure Fremantle will heap on them this week. Biggest problem? The biggest problem in the game, Sandilands. GWS have no ruck stocks at the moment, big Mummy has gone down and big men Lobb ( 205/96 ) and Downie ( 205/103 ) while being big lumps of lads will be on the wrong side of smarts when they face the big man from Perth.

Fremantle to stay top of the table, by 39 points.
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Booney

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Re: BOOOneys Round 18 preview

Post by Paul on Thu Jul 30, 2015 6:58 pm

Loved last Friday night, one of the best games since the 2007 Grand Final tbh.

Looks like the easiest round to pick winners for quite some time.

We know there will be an upset or 3.

Richmond to beat Hawthorn in my only upset tip

Geelong
Collingwood but Melbourne are a chance
Sydney but would love to be proven wrong
North Melbourne
West Coast but Gold Coast a chance
Port Adelaide
Western Bulldogs but Essendon a chance
Fremantle

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Re: BOOOneys Round 18 preview

Post by Booney on Fri Jul 31, 2015 8:08 am

I write my previews on Wednesday/Thursday, as such I often post before final team selections.

I'll change my Sydney v Adelaide tip to Sydney by 14 points with their inclusions.
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Re: BOOOneys Round 18 preview

Post by Thiele on Fri Jul 31, 2015 6:00 pm

HAwks
Cats
Pies
Crows
Roos
West Coast
Port
Bulldogs
Freo
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Re: BOOOneys Round 18 preview

Post by Paul on Sat Aug 01, 2015 9:24 pm

Gold Coast and West Coast have drawn.

In the Sydney vs Adelaide match...Betts handballs to Tippett... Dwayne Russell "Betts handballs to his former teammate" really Dwayne, really?
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